TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Javier Reyes (Featherweight, Prelims)
Volume:
$687,667
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers multiple prediction markets on a UFC Fight Night preliminary featherweight bout between Douglas Silva de Andrade and Javier Reyes scheduled for February 28, 2026. Markets span winner determination, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission), fight duration thresholds, and distance completion across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi winner markets lack fighter specificity and edge-case definitions, while Polymarket provides granular resolution logic with explicit postponement cutoffs and no-contest handling. The Kalshi markets are logically defective for directional betting purposes.Hero Tip:
Ignore Kalshi's winner markets entirely for directional exposure. Use Polymarket's head-to-head market (Question 14: Silva de Andrade vs. Reyes) for actual winner bets. For method-of-victory and duration markets, both platforms align on core logic but Polymarket's explicit March 14, 2026 cutoff is the operative deadline. Confirm fight status by February 28, 2026 close of business.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Winner markets (Questions 1-2) resolve "Yes" if either Javier Reyes wins OR Douglas Silva de Andrade wins the fight. No distinction between fighters; no explicit edge-case handling for cancellations, postponements, or no-contests. Quote: 'If Javier Reyes wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Douglas Silva de Andrade wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Head-to-head market (Question 14) resolves to 'Silva de Andrade' or 'Reyes' based on official UFC declaration of the winner. Explicitly resolves to '50-50' if fight is draw, technical draw, no-contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 14, 2026. Quote: 'If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 14, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.