TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Danny Silva vs. Kurtis Campbell (Featherweight, Main Card)
Description
This market will resolve to "Danny Silva" if Danny Silva is officially declared the winner of the fight against Kurtis Campbell at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy, scheduled for March 21, 2026. It will resolve to "Kurtis Campbell" if Kurtis Campbell is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket provides comprehensive market definitions with detailed resolution criteria across 9 distinct markets (O/U rounds, method of victory, fight winner, distance), while Kalshi provides only 2 vague binary outcomes without specifying which fighter or resolution method. Kalshi's markets are logically incomplete and cannot be independently resolved.Hero Tip:
Avoid trading on Kalshi for this event group. Kalshi's markets lack specificity on fighter identity and resolution method, creating ambiguity on what constitutes a YES resolution. Polymarket's markets are fully defined with clear thresholds, timing rules, and edge cases. If you must trade Kalshi, treat it as a generic 'fight occurs' market only, not a specific fighter or method bet.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Provides 9 distinct, fully-specified markets covering fight duration (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds), method of victory (KO/TKO by either fighter, submission, distance), and outright winner. Each market includes explicit resolution criteria, tie-breaking rules (50-50 at exact thresholds), and cancellation/postponement clauses. Key quote: 'If the fight ends exactly at the threshold (e.g., 2:30 of Round 3 for a 2.5 line), it will resolve 50-50.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Provides only 2 binary markets with minimal definition. Market 1 states 'If Danny Silva wins the Campbell vs Silva professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' Market 2 states 'If Kurtis Campbell wins the Campbell vs Silva professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' No specification of resolution method (KO/TKO, submission, decision), no handling of draws, no tie-breaking rules, and no cancellation/postponement protocol. Key quote: 'If Kurtis Campbell wins the Campbell vs Silva professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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