TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prelims)
Volume:
$475,359
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a UFC Fight Night preliminary welterweight bout between Chris Curtis and Myktybek Orolbai scheduled for March 14, 2026, at UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos. Markets span multiple resolution outcomes including winner determination, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), and fight duration thresholds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket provides comprehensive, method-specific resolution logic with explicit edge-case handling across eight distinct markets. Kalshi offers a single binary market with minimal specification, creating ambiguity around draws, disqualifications, cancellations, and postponements.Hero Tip:
Use Polymarket for granular outcome trading (method, duration, specific winner). Kalshi's binary structure is suitable only for simple win/loss bets. If the fight ends in a draw or No Contest, Polymarket resolves to 50-50 while Kalshi's outcome is undefined—this creates arbitrage risk and potential settlement disputes.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Eight distinct markets covering winner, method (KO/TKO, submission), duration (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds), and distance. All markets explicitly resolve to 50-50 if bout is No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 28, 2026. Draws and disqualifications explicitly resolve to No for method-specific markets. Key Quote: 'If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 28, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'
- Kalshi: Single binary market: resolves Yes if either Curtis or Orolbai wins. No specification for draws, disqualifications, cancellations, postponements, or No Contest scenarios. Key Quote: 'If Myktybek Orolbay Uulu wins the Curtis vs Orolbay Uulu professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.