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$1,441,166,947

406,422

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2,688

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UFC Fight Night: Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prelims)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$475,359

O/U 2.5 Rounds

 - Polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 15, 2026

Closed: Mar 14, 11:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$72,675
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Myktybek Orolbay Uulu

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$38,567
N/A
N/A
$37,618
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,211
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$168
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$160
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$263,330
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Chris Curtis

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$97,987
N/A
N/A
$97,019
Settled
No
polymarket

Orolbai to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$909
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$126
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$123
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Curtis to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$103
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers a UFC Fight Night preliminary welterweight bout between Chris Curtis and Myktybek Orolbai scheduled for March 14, 2026, at UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos. Markets span multiple resolution outcomes including winner determination, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), and fight duration thresholds.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket provides comprehensive, method-specific resolution logic with explicit edge-case handling across eight distinct markets. Kalshi offers a single binary market with minimal specification, creating ambiguity around draws, disqualifications, cancellations, and postponements.Hero tip: Use Polymarket for granular outcome trading (method, duration, specific winner). Kalshi's binary structure is suitable only for simple win/loss bets. If the fight ends in a draw or No Contest, Polymarket resolves to 50-50 while Kalshi's outcome is undefined—this creates arbitrage risk and potential settlement disputes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Eight distinct markets covering winner, method (KO/TKO, submission), duration (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds), and distance. All markets explicitly resolve to 50-50 if bout is No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 28, 2026. Draws and disqualifications explicitly resolve to No for method-specific markets. Key Quote: 'If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 28, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'
  • Kalshi: Single binary market: resolves Yes if either Curtis or Orolbai wins. No specification for draws, disqualifications, cancellations, postponements, or No Contest scenarios. Key Quote: 'If Myktybek Orolbay Uulu wins the Curtis vs Orolbay Uulu professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.