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UFC Fight Night: Austen Lane vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)
polymarket
kalshi

UFC Fight Night: Austen Lane vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)

Volume:
$706,638

Iwo Baraniewski

 - Kalshi

Iwo Baraniewski - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 22, 2026

Closed: Mar 21, 9:40 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Iwo Baraniewski

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$162,307
N/A
N/A
$141,974
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Baraniewski to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,548
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$129
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Austen Lane

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$281,482
N/A
N/A
$278,209
Settled
No
polymarket

Austen Lane vs. Iwo Baraniewski

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$248,992
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,416
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,944
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,227
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lane to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$481
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$90
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to "Austen Lane" if Austen Lane is officially declared the winner of the fight against Iwo Baraniewski at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy, scheduled for March 21, 2026. It will resolve to "Iwo Baraniewski" if Iwo Baraniewski is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket provides comprehensive, detailed resolution criteria across 9 distinct markets with specific thresholds, method-of-victory distinctions, and edge-case handling (including 50-50 resolution for cancellations, postponements, and no-contests). Kalshi provides only a single binary market with no method-of-victory distinction, no round/timing thresholds, and no documented edge-case or cancellation protocol, making it fundamentally unresolvable for most Polymarket outcomes.Hero tip: If you trade on Polymarket, you have granular control over method of victory (KO/TKO vs. submission vs. decision) and fight duration (round thresholds). Kalshi offers only a simple winner-or-loser binary with no clarity on how cancellations, no-contests, or draws resolve. Do not assume Kalshi will mirror Polymarket's 50-50 resolution for edge cases—Kalshi's rules are silent on this. Hedge accordingly or avoid cross-platform arbitrage on this group.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket offers 9 separate markets covering winner, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), round duration thresholds (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds), and distance completion. Each market includes explicit 50-50 resolution for no-contests, cancellations, postponements beyond April 4, 2026, and exact-threshold ties. Key quote: 'If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 4, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'
  • Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi provides a single binary market ('If Iwo Baraniewski wins... then resolves Yes. If Austen Lane wins... then resolves Yes.') with no method-of-victory distinction, no round thresholds, and no documented resolution protocol for draws, no-contests, cancellations, or postponements. The market structure is logically incomplete and does not address edge cases. Key quote: 'If Iwo Baraniewski wins the Baraniewski vs Lane professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.