TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Austen Lane vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)
Description
This market will resolve to "Austen Lane" if Austen Lane is officially declared the winner of the fight against Iwo Baraniewski at UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy, scheduled for March 21, 2026. It will resolve to "Iwo Baraniewski" if Iwo Baraniewski is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket provides comprehensive, detailed resolution criteria across 9 distinct markets with specific thresholds, method-of-victory distinctions, and edge-case handling (including 50-50 resolution for cancellations, postponements, and no-contests). Kalshi provides only a single binary market with no method-of-victory distinction, no round/timing thresholds, and no documented edge-case or cancellation protocol, making it fundamentally unresolvable for most Polymarket outcomes.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Polymarket, you have granular control over method of victory (KO/TKO vs. submission vs. decision) and fight duration (round thresholds). Kalshi offers only a simple winner-or-loser binary with no clarity on how cancellations, no-contests, or draws resolve. Do not assume Kalshi will mirror Polymarket's 50-50 resolution for edge cases—Kalshi's rules are silent on this. Hedge accordingly or avoid cross-platform arbitrage on this group.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket offers 9 separate markets covering winner, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), round duration thresholds (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds), and distance completion. Each market includes explicit 50-50 resolution for no-contests, cancellations, postponements beyond April 4, 2026, and exact-threshold ties. Key quote: 'If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 4, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi provides a single binary market ('If Iwo Baraniewski wins... then resolves Yes. If Austen Lane wins... then resolves Yes.') with no method-of-victory distinction, no round thresholds, and no documented resolution protocol for draws, no-contests, cancellations, or postponements. The market structure is logically incomplete and does not address edge cases. Key quote: 'If Iwo Baraniewski wins the Baraniewski vs Lane professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.