TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$230,557,910
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,202,344,730
501,342
Markets across
13,602
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,822
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Ante Delija vs. Serghei Spivac (Heavyweight, Main Card)
Volume:
$2,759,321
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the UFC Fight Night heavyweight bout between Ante Delija and Serghei Spivac scheduled for February 21, 2026. Markets span fight outcome (winner), fight duration (round thresholds), finish method (KO/TKO, submission, decision), and distance completion. Both platforms reference the same fight but with different market structures and resolution mechanics.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market definition contains a logical contradiction: both fighters cannot resolve to YES simultaneously. Kalshi lacks granular market definitions, edge-case handling, and a cancellation deadline, while Polymarket provides complete, mutually exclusive resolution logic with explicit tie/draw/no-contest rules and a March 7, 2026 cutoff.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's market as written—it is unresolvable. Polymarket's markets are the authoritative reference. All settlement must use official UFC records. If the fight is canceled, postponed beyond March 7, 2026, ruled a draw, technical draw, no contest, or not scored, all Polymarket markets resolve 50-50. For winner markets, only a clear decision by one fighter (KO/TKO, submission, or judges' decision) resolves to that fighter.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Kalshi defines two markets: (1) 'If Ante Delija wins...resolves to Yes' and (2) 'If Sergey Spivak wins...resolves to Yes.' This is logically impossible—only one fighter can win. Kalshi provides no granular round-duration markets, no finish-method specificity, no tie/draw handling, and no cancellation deadline. Market is fundamentally unresolvable as stated.
- Polymarket: Polymarket offers 9 distinct, mutually exclusive markets: (1) Winner (Delija vs Spivac, 50-50 on draw/no-contest/cancel), (2-4) Round thresholds (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds, 50-50 at exact threshold or if canceled/postponed beyond March 7), (5) Distance (Yes if judges' decision after all rounds, 50-50 on no-contest/cancel), (6) Any KO/TKO (Yes if either fighter wins by KO/TKO/stoppage, No otherwise, 50-50 on draw/disqualification/cancel), (7) Delija KO/TKO (Yes only if Delija wins by KO/TKO, 50-50 on draw/disqualification/cancel), (8) Submission (Yes if either fighter wins by submission, 50-50 on draw/disqualification/cancel), (9) Spivac KO/TKO (Yes only if Spivac wins by KO/TKO, 50-50 on draw/disqualification/cancel). All reference official UFC records and March 7, 2026 deadline.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.