TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Prelims)
Description
This market will resolve to "Alexander Hernandez" if Alexander Hernandez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rafa Garcia at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Rafa Garcia" if Rafa Garcia is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market logic is fundamentally broken and contradictory. It resolves YES if EITHER fighter wins, making it impossible for the market to ever resolve NO, which violates basic binary market logic.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market. It contains a logical impossibility: both outcomes (Hernandez wins OR Garcia wins) trigger YES resolution, leaving no path to NO. This market is unresolvable as written and should be flagged for immediate correction or cancellation.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Polymarket defines seven distinct markets with mutually exclusive resolution paths: (1) Rafa Garcia wins by KO/TKO, (2) Fight ends by submission, (3) Fight ends by KO/TKO (either fighter), (4) Alexander Hernandez wins by KO/TKO, (5) O/U 1.5 Rounds, (6) Fight Winner (Hernandez vs Garcia vs Draw/NC), (7) Fight Goes Distance, (8) O/U 0.5 Rounds, (9) O/U 2.5 Rounds. Each market has clear YES/NO resolution criteria tied to specific fight outcomes. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if Rafa Garcia defeats Alexander Hernandez...by KO or TKO...Otherwise, it will resolve to No.'
- Kalshi: Kalshi defines a single market with contradictory logic: 'If Alexander Hernandez wins the Garcia vs Hernandez professional MMA fight...then the market resolves to Yes. If Rafa Garcia wins the Garcia vs Hernandez professional MMA fight...then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical impossibility where both possible fight outcomes (Hernandez victory OR Garcia victory) resolve to YES, with no defined NO resolution path.
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