TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims)
Description
This market will resolve to "Patricio Pitbull" if Patricio Pitbull is officially declared the winner of the fight against Aaron Pico at UFC 327: Procházka vs. Ulberg, scheduled for April 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Aaron Pico" if Aaron Pico is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution scopes. Kalshi resolves based on fight outcome across all three rounds (winner in any round), while Polymarket offers multiple independent markets covering fight distance, method of victory, and round duration thresholds.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on a simple winner determination (any round, any method). On Polymarket, you can isolate specific outcomes: distance (judges' decision), method (KO/TKO vs submission), and round duration. Kalshi's market will resolve YES for any decisive outcome in Rounds 1–3; Polymarket's markets are granular and may resolve differently depending on fight circumstances (e.g., a Round 1 KO resolves YES on Polymarket's KO/TKO market but does NOT resolve YES on the 'Fight to Go the Distance' market).Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi collapses all fight outcomes into a single binary: the market resolves YES if either fighter wins in any of the three scheduled rounds, regardless of method (KO/TKO, submission, or judges' decision). The rules state 'If Patricio Pitbull wins...in Round 1, then the market resolves to Yes' through Round 3, and identically for Aaron Pico, with no distinction by finish method.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers six separate markets, each with independent resolution logic: (1) Fight to Go the Distance (judges' decision after all rounds), (2) Over/Under 1.5 Rounds, (3) Head-to-head winner (Pitbull vs Pico, 50-50 on draw/no contest), (4) KO/TKO finish (any fighter), (5) Pitbull KO/TKO win, (6) Pico KO/TKO win, (7) Submission finish, (8) Over/Under 0.5 Rounds, and (9) Over/Under 2.5 Rounds. Each market has distinct resolution criteria: 'This market will resolve to Yes if the fight...goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards' for distance; 'Over if the fight...lasts beyond the listed round threshold' for duration markets.
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