TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims)
Description
This market will resolve to "Mateusz Gamrot" if Mateusz Gamrot is officially declared the winner of the fight against Esteban Ribovics at UFC 327: Procházka vs. Ulberg, scheduled for April 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Esteban Ribovics" if Esteban Ribovics is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different resolution scopes. Kalshi resolves on binary conditions about fight duration (before round 2 or before round 3), while Polymarket offers granular markets on specific fight outcomes (winner, method, round duration, distance) with overlapping but distinct settlement logic.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi's 'ends before round 2' or 'ends before round 3' markets, you are betting on fight duration only—not on who wins or how. On Polymarket, you can bet on specific outcomes like 'Gamrot wins by KO/TKO' or 'Fight goes the distance.' These are not directly comparable; a Kalshi YES (fight ends early) does not guarantee any particular Polymarket outcome. Cross-platform arbitrage is not possible here because the markets measure different things.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi offers only two binary duration-based markets. Market 1 resolves YES if the fight ends before round 2 (before 2:30 of R2). Market 2 resolves YES if the fight ends before round 3 (before 2:30 of R3). No markets on winner identity, method, or full-distance completion. Quote: 'If the Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics UFC fight originally scheduled for Apr 11, 2026 ends before round 2, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers six outcome-specific markets covering winner (Gamrot vs. Ribovics), method (KO/TKO by either fighter, submission, any KO/TKO), round duration (O/U 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 rounds), and full-distance completion. Each market has independent resolution logic tied to fight outcome, not duration alone. Quote: 'This market will resolve to "Yes" if Esteban Ribovics defeats Mateusz Gamrot at UFC 327: Procházka vs. Ulberg, scheduled for April 11, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage.'
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