TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)
Description
This market will resolve to "Curtis Blaydes" if Curtis Blaydes is officially declared the winner of the fight against Josh Hokit at UFC 327: Procházka vs. Ulberg, scheduled for April 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Josh Hokit" if Josh Hokit is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different market structures and resolution scopes. Kalshi offers six binary markets covering all possible fight outcomes (any winner, any round), while Polymarket offers six categorical/binary markets focused on specific finish types (KO/TKO, submission, decision) and fight duration. The platforms resolve on the same underlying UFC official result but organize and segment the betting outcomes differently.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on round-specific outcomes (e.g., 'Blaydes wins in Round 2'). If you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on finish method or duration (e.g., 'fight ends by KO/TKO' or 'goes the distance'). A single UFC result will trigger different market resolutions on each platform. Ensure your position aligns with the finish type and duration you expect, not just the winner.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi structures six binary YES/NO markets, each resolving YES if a specific fighter wins in a specific round (Round 1, 2, or 3). All six markets collectively cover every possible fight outcome. Each market asks 'Does [Fighter] win in [Round]?' with no consideration of finish method or duration. Key quote: 'If Curtis Blaydes wins the Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit UFC fight originally scheduled for Apr 11, 2026 in Round 2, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket structures six markets organized by finish type (KO/TKO, submission, decision/distance) and a head-to-head winner market. Markets explicitly define resolution based on how the fight ends (method and duration), not just who wins. Draws, disqualifications, and no-contests resolve to 50-50. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if the fight between Curtis Blaydes and Josh Hokit at UFC 327: Procházka vs. Ulberg, scheduled for April 11, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to No.'
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.