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UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims)

Volume:
$1,684,737

Christopher Padilla

 - Kalshi

Christopher Padilla - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 12, 2026

Closed: Apr 11, 10:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Christopher Padilla

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$403,570
N/A
N/A
$367,630
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,886
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,868
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,612
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,370
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos

View
50%
Yes 50¢No 50¢
—
N/A
$938,725
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Marquel Mederos

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$332,966
N/A
N/A
$311,049
Settled
No
polymarket

Padilla to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$381
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$144
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$136
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Mederos to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$80
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to "Chris Padilla" if Chris Padilla is officially declared the winner of the fight against MarQuel Mederos at UFC 327: Procházka vs. Ulberg, scheduled for April 11, 2026. It will resolve to "MarQuel Mederos" if MarQuel Mederos is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond April 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market structure is logically incoherent and unresolvable. Kalshi states that the market resolves YES if Christopher Padilla wins OR if Marquel Mederos wins—meaning the market resolves YES for every possible fight outcome (excluding only draws/no-contests). Polymarket correctly structures its markets with mutually exclusive outcomes (Chris Padilla wins, MarQuel Mederos wins, or 50-50 for edge cases), making it the only resolvable platform in this group.Hero tip: Do not trade on Kalshi's Padilla vs Mederos market—it is fundamentally unresolvable as written because it resolves YES regardless of who wins. All trading activity should be directed to Polymarket, which has properly defined mutually exclusive resolution outcomes. If you have existing Kalshi positions, seek clarification from Kalshi support immediately, as the market rules appear to contain a critical drafting error.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's market contains a logical contradiction. The rules state 'If Christopher Padilla wins...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Marquel Mederos wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' This means the market resolves YES for every possible fight outcome, making it impossible to distinguish between outcomes and rendering the market unresolvable. No other platform shares this defective logic.
  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket correctly defines mutually exclusive resolution outcomes. The market resolves to 'Chris Padilla' if Chris Padilla wins, 'MarQuel Mederos' if MarQuel Mederos wins, and '50-50' for draws, technical draws, no contests, or postponements beyond April 25, 2026. This structure allows for proper resolution based on the actual fight outcome.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.