TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC 326: Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)
Volume:
$898,075
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the UFC 326 preliminary bout between Diyar Nurgozhay and Rafael Tobias scheduled for March 7, 2026. Markets span winner determination, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration thresholds, and distance completion across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents ambiguous dual-Yes resolution logic that conflicts with standard market design, while Polymarket uses explicit binary outcomes with comprehensive edge-case definitions. The platforms differ in scope (Kalshi unclear on method markets vs. Polymarket explicit) and edge-case handling (Polymarket detailed, Kalshi absent).Hero Tip:
Treat Kalshi markets as potentially two separate binary markets (one per fighter) rather than a single comparative market. On Polymarket, prioritize the March 21, 2026 deadline for cancellation/postponement as the hard settlement cutoff. All method-based markets (KO/TKO, submission, distance) on Polymarket resolve to 50-50 if the bout is not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Winner markets resolve to Yes for either Nurgozhay OR Tobias winning. This dual-Yes structure is logically inconsistent with standard binary market design and suggests these may be two separate markets. No explicit edge-case handling provided for draws, no-contests, or cancellations.
- Polymarket: Winner market resolves to 'Diyar Nurgozhay' or 'Rafael Tobias' with explicit 50-50 fallback for draws, technical draws, no-contests, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026. Method markets (KO/TKO, submission, distance) all include identical 50-50 fallback logic and March 21 deadline.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.