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UFC 326: Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC 326: Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$898,075

Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Rafael Tobias

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 8, 2026

Closed: Mar 7, 11:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Rafael Tobias

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$484,782
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Diyar Nurgozhay

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$116,837
N/A
N/A
$103,809
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,977
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$466
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$220
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$215
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Rafael Tobias

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$291,073
N/A
N/A
$274,655
Settled
No
polymarket

Tobias to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$444
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Nurgozhay to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$420
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$420
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$220
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers the UFC 326 preliminary bout between Diyar Nurgozhay and Rafael Tobias scheduled for March 7, 2026. Markets span winner determination, method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), fight duration thresholds, and distance completion across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi presents ambiguous dual-Yes resolution logic that conflicts with standard market design, while Polymarket uses explicit binary outcomes with comprehensive edge-case definitions. The platforms differ in scope (Kalshi unclear on method markets vs. Polymarket explicit) and edge-case handling (Polymarket detailed, Kalshi absent).Hero tip: Treat Kalshi markets as potentially two separate binary markets (one per fighter) rather than a single comparative market. On Polymarket, prioritize the March 21, 2026 deadline for cancellation/postponement as the hard settlement cutoff. All method-based markets (KO/TKO, submission, distance) on Polymarket resolve to 50-50 if the bout is not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Winner markets resolve to Yes for either Nurgozhay OR Tobias winning. This dual-Yes structure is logically inconsistent with standard binary market design and suggests these may be two separate markets. No explicit edge-case handling provided for draws, no-contests, or cancellations.
  • Polymarket: Winner market resolves to 'Diyar Nurgozhay' or 'Rafael Tobias' with explicit 50-50 fallback for draws, technical draws, no-contests, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026. Method markets (KO/TKO, submission, distance) all include identical 50-50 fallback logic and March 21 deadline.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.