TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims)

Volume:
$1,667,712

Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long

 - Polymarket

Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 8, 2026

Closed: Mar 7, 11:59 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,094,298
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Cody Garbrandt

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$377,864
N/A
N/A
$339,933
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Garbrandt to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$484
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,125
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$737
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$150
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$128
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Xiao Long

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$191,343
N/A
N/A
$186,820
Settled
No
polymarket

Long to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,017
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$304
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$263
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event group covers multiple prediction markets on the UFC 326 bantamweight preliminary fight between Cody Garbrandt and Xiao Long, scheduled for March 7, 2026. Markets span fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), round duration thresholds, and distance completion.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's winner market contains a logical contradiction: both possible fight outcomes (Xiao Long wins OR Cody Garbrandt wins) resolve to Yes, making the market unable to differentiate between the two fighters. Polymarket's equivalent market correctly resolves to specific fighter names with mutual exclusivity.Hero tip: The Kalshi market is fundamentally broken for outcome prediction. Do not trade it as a directional bet on either fighter. All Polymarket method-of-victory and round duration markets are internally consistent and resolvable. Confirm fight status via UFC.com official event page before any settlement occurs.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Winner market states: If Xiao Long wins → Yes; If Cody Garbrandt wins → Yes. Both outcomes map to the same resolution (Yes), creating a logical impossibility. No mechanism exists to differentiate the two fighters.
  • Polymarket: Fighter outcome market resolves to Cody Garbrandt (if he wins), Xiao Long (if he wins), or 50-50 (draw, no contest, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026). Clear mutual exclusivity and differentiation.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.