TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims)
Volume:
$1,667,712
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers multiple prediction markets on the UFC 326 bantamweight preliminary fight between Cody Garbrandt and Xiao Long, scheduled for March 7, 2026. Markets span fight outcome (winner), method of victory (KO/TKO, submission, decision), round duration thresholds, and distance completion.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's winner market contains a logical contradiction: both possible fight outcomes (Xiao Long wins OR Cody Garbrandt wins) resolve to Yes, making the market unable to differentiate between the two fighters. Polymarket's equivalent market correctly resolves to specific fighter names with mutual exclusivity.Hero Tip:
The Kalshi market is fundamentally broken for outcome prediction. Do not trade it as a directional bet on either fighter. All Polymarket method-of-victory and round duration markets are internally consistent and resolvable. Confirm fight status via UFC.com official event page before any settlement occurs.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Winner market states: If Xiao Long wins → Yes; If Cody Garbrandt wins → Yes. Both outcomes map to the same resolution (Yes), creating a logical impossibility. No mechanism exists to differentiate the two fighters.
- Polymarket: Fighter outcome market resolves to Cody Garbrandt (if he wins), Xiao Long (if he wins), or 50-50 (draw, no contest, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026). Clear mutual exclusivity and differentiation.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.