TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UD Almería vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa
Volume:
$110,423
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a La Liga 2 (Spanish second division) soccer match between UD Almería and Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa scheduled for March 9, 2026. Three markets across Polymarket and Kalshi track the match outcome: Almería win, draw, and Leonesa win, each resolving based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's draw market contains a cancellation clause that resolves to YES if the game is canceled with no make-up, while all other markets (Polymarket win markets and all Kalshi markets) resolve to NO in the same scenario. This creates a logical inconsistency in how cancellation is treated across the market group.Hero Tip:
Monitor La Liga 2 official announcements for any cancellation or postponement notices. If cancellation occurs, the Polymarket draw market will resolve YES while Almería and Leonesa win markets resolve NO. This divergence makes the draw market a hedge against cancellation risk, unlike the win markets. Traders should account for this asymmetry when positioning across platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets: Almería Win (resolves YES if Almería wins, NO otherwise including cancellation), Draw (resolves YES if draw OR if game canceled with no make-up, NO otherwise), Leonesa Win (resolves YES if Leonesa wins, NO otherwise including cancellation). Key quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes' (draw market only).
- Kalshi: Three outcome-based markets that collectively cover all possible match results (Tie, Almería Win, Cultural Leonesa Win), each resolving YES if that outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation clause provided; standard sports market convention would treat cancellation as market void or NO resolution. Implicit logic: all three markets resolve YES only if the match is completed and produces that specific result.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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