TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
UC Sampdoria vs. Calcio Padova
Volume:
$78,255
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers three interconnected prediction markets on the UC Sampdoria vs. Calcio Padova Serie B soccer match scheduled for February 14, 2026. Markets track whether Sampdoria wins, Padova wins, or the match ends in a draw, all measured at 90 minutes plus stoppage time (regular play only).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution structure is logically contradictory: it states all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Sampdoria win, Padova win, Tie) resolve to Yes, which is impossible. Additionally, Kalshi and Polymarket diverge on cancellation handling: Polymarket's draw market resolves Yes on cancellation while win/loss markets resolve No, whereas Kalshi's intent on cancellation is unclear due to the structural contradiction.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets until resolution language is clarified. Kalshi likely intended standard 1X2 logic (three separate Yes/No markets), but the current wording creates an unresolvable state. On Polymarket, the draw market is a hidden long bet on cancellation (resolves Yes), while Sampdoria and Padova win markets are hidden short bets (resolve No on cancellation). Verify game status and official Serie B scheduling before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: All three outcomes (Sampdoria win, Padova win, Tie) are stated to resolve to Yes. This is logically impossible since only one outcome can occur. Cancellation handling is not explicitly addressed. Quote: 'If Sampdoria wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Padova wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Three separate markets with differentiated cancellation logic: Sampdoria win and Padova win markets resolve No on cancellation; draw market resolves Yes on cancellation. Quote (draw): 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve Yes.' Quote (win/loss): 'this market will resolve No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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