TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. VfL Wolfsburg
Volume:
$1,215,526
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Bundesliga match between TSG 1899 Hoffenheim and VfL Wolfsburg scheduled for March 14, 2026. Markets span match outcome (win/draw/loss), total goals scored, and are offered across Kalshi and Polymarket platforms with differing resolution scopes and edge-case handling.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's cancellation rules diverge between the draw market (resolves Yes on cancellation) and win markets (resolve No on cancellation). Kalshi's goals markets do not address cancellation or postponement scenarios. All platforms agree on the 90-minute + stoppage time window, but edge-case handling is fragmented.Hero Tip:
Before March 14, 2026, confirm with each platform whether a canceled match triggers their stated resolution rules. The draw market on Polymarket has asymmetric risk: it benefits from cancellation while win markets do not. Consider this when sizing positions across platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three separate markets: Wolfsburg Win (resolves No on cancellation), Hoffenheim Win (resolves No on cancellation), and Draw (resolves Yes on cancellation with no make-up). All reference 90 minutes + stoppage time. Primary source is official Bundesliga statistics or credible reporting within 2 hours of conclusion.
- Kalshi: Four markets on total goals thresholds (>1.5, >2.5, >3.5, >4.5). All specify 90 minutes + stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. No explicit guidance on postponement or cancellation; resolution source not stated.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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