TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Troy Trojans vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (W)
polymarket
kalshi

Troy Trojans vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (W)

Volume:
$193,140

Troy

 - Kalshi

Troy - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Feb 25, 2026

Troy at Arkansas St. Winner?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: N/A Illiquid market
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Troy

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$99,591
0%
0%
$58,514
N/A
polymarket

Troy Trojans vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (W)

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,241
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
kalshi

Arkansas St.

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$89,308
0%
0%
$63,868
N/A
Total markets: 3

Description

This event group covers a women's college basketball game between Troy Trojans and Arkansas State Red Wolves scheduled for February 24, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET. Markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are attempting to resolve based on the final game outcome, but the platforms define resolution criteria differently.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market contains a logical contradiction: both possible game outcomes (Troy win and Arkansas State win) are mapped to the same resolution (Yes), making the market outcome predetermined and unresolvable as a true binary event. Polymarket defines a proper binary with a 50-50 cancellation clause.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is broken and should not be traded in its current form. The platform likely intended to create two separate Yes/No markets (one for each team) but instead created a single market where all outcomes resolve Yes. Polymarket's market is the only logically sound version. Recommend waiting for Kalshi to issue an amendment or cancel and reissue.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Proper binary winner-take-all structure. Troy win = 'Troy Trojans' resolution, Arkansas State win = 'Arkansas State Red Wolves' resolution. Cancellation without makeup = 50-50 split. Resolves based on final score including overtime.
  • Kalshi: Logically contradictory. Both 'Troy wins' and 'Arkansas St. wins' are mapped to Yes resolution. This means the market resolves Yes regardless of actual game outcome, making it unresolvable as a discriminating binary.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.