TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Troy Trojans vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (W)
Volume:
$193,140
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a women's college basketball game between Troy Trojans and Arkansas State Red Wolves scheduled for February 24, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET. Markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are attempting to resolve based on the final game outcome, but the platforms define resolution criteria differently.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market contains a logical contradiction: both possible game outcomes (Troy win and Arkansas State win) are mapped to the same resolution (Yes), making the market outcome predetermined and unresolvable as a true binary event. Polymarket defines a proper binary with a 50-50 cancellation clause.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's market is broken and should not be traded in its current form. The platform likely intended to create two separate Yes/No markets (one for each team) but instead created a single market where all outcomes resolve Yes. Polymarket's market is the only logically sound version. Recommend waiting for Kalshi to issue an amendment or cancel and reissue.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Proper binary winner-take-all structure. Troy win = 'Troy Trojans' resolution, Arkansas State win = 'Arkansas State Red Wolves' resolution. Cancellation without makeup = 50-50 split. Resolves based on final score including overtime.
- Kalshi: Logically contradictory. Both 'Troy wins' and 'Arkansas St. wins' are mapped to Yes resolution. This means the market resolves Yes regardless of actual game outcome, making it unresolvable as a discriminating binary.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.