TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient
Volume:
$1,333,210
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Ligue 1 game, scheduled for Saturday, March 21, 2026 between Toulouse FC and FC Lorient.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents three separate YES-resolution markets (one for each outcome: Lorient win, Toulouse win, or tie), while Polymarket offers three binary markets (Lorient win YES/NO, Toulouse win YES/NO, draw YES/NO). This creates fundamentally different settlement structures: Kalshi's markets all resolve YES for any match outcome, whereas Polymarket's markets resolve YES for only one specific outcome each.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, understand that all three markets in this group will resolve YES regardless of the match result—they are outcome-tracking markets, not mutually exclusive bets. On Polymarket, exactly one of the three binary markets will resolve YES and the others NO, making them true mutually exclusive outcome bets. Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket markets move in tandem.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi offers three separate markets, each resolving YES if its named outcome occurs (Lorient win, Toulouse win, or tie). All three markets can resolve YES simultaneously if the match completes. The resolution source is the official match result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no explicit fallback source stated. Key quote: 'If Lorient wins... then the market resolves to Yes' / 'If Toulouse wins... then the market resolves to Yes' / 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes'.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive binary markets (Lorient YES/NO, Toulouse YES/NO, draw YES/NO), where exactly one resolves YES and the others resolve NO. The primary resolution source is official Ligue 1 statistics; if unavailable within 2 hours post-match, credible reporting consensus is used. Cancellation with no make-up resolves draw markets to YES but Lorient/Toulouse markets to NO. Key quote: 'If FC Lorient wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' and 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes' (for draw market only).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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