TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Timberwolves vs. Magic
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for April 8 at 7:00PM ET: If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the Magic win, the market will resolve to "Magic". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market resolves YES for ANY outcome (either team winning), making it logically incoherent and fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket correctly structures mutually exclusive outcomes (Timberwolves win, Magic win, or game postponed/canceled). This is a data integrity failure on Kalshi's part.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's moneyline market (items 1-2). It violates basic market logic by resolving YES regardless of which team wins. All Polymarket markets (items 3-155) are properly structured with mutually exclusive outcomes. Stick to Polymarket for this event group.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's moneyline market (items 1-2) states 'If Orlando wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Minnesota wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical contradiction where the market resolves YES for every possible outcome, making it unresolvable. Key quote: 'If Orlando wins the Minnesota at Orlando professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Minnesota wins the Minnesota at Orlando professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Aligned with proper market structure: Polymarket correctly defines mutually exclusive outcomes. The moneyline (items 3-4) resolves to 'Timberwolves' if Timberwolves win, 'Magic' if Magic win, and 50-50 if canceled. All spread markets (items 5-155) follow standard sportsbook logic with clear thresholds and tie-breaking rules. Key quote: 'If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to Timberwolves. If the Magic win, the market will resolve to Magic.'
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