TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$87,997,338

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,395,155,069

395,664

Markets across

30,076

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,626

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
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Sports
The Masters 2026: Top Debutant
kalshi
polymarket

The Masters 2026: Top Debutant

Volume:
$416,583

Sam Stevens

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 13, 2026

Closed: Apr 12, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Sam Stevens

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$737
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Sam Stevens

33%
Yes 33¢No 67¢
—
N/A
$18,099
N/A
N/A
$16,701
Settled
No
kalshi

Chris Gotterup

33%
Yes 33¢No 67¢
—
N/A
$129,735
N/A
N/A
$94,567
Settled
No
polymarket

Chris Gotterup

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,273
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Michael Brennan

33%
Yes 33¢No 67¢
—
N/A
$22,401
N/A
N/A
$19,078
Settled
No
polymarket

Michael Brennan

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,496
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jacob Bridgeman

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$84,672
N/A
N/A
$69,435
Settled
No
kalshi

Ben Griffin

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$48,482
N/A
N/A
$37,825
Settled
No
polymarket

Ben Griffin

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$264
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Kristoffer Reitan

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,176
N/A
N/A
$19,314
Settled
No
polymarket

Kristoffer Reitan

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$159
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ryan Gerard

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,819
N/A
N/A
$17,430
Settled
No
polymarket

Ryan Gerard

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$201
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Marco Penge

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,928
N/A
N/A
$17,452
Settled
No
polymarket

Marco Penge

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$232
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Sami Valimaki

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,872
N/A
N/A
$14,770
Settled
No
polymarket

Sami Valimaki

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$250
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Casey Jarvis

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,391
N/A
N/A
$4,303
Settled
No
kalshi

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,807
N/A
N/A
$3,807
Settled
No
polymarket

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$119
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Mason Howell

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,321
N/A
N/A
$3,321
Settled
No
polymarket

Mason Howell

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$119
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ethan Fang

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,260
N/A
N/A
$3,158
Settled
No
polymarket

Ethan Fang

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$205
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Harry Hall

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,128
N/A
N/A
$3,128
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 47

Description

This market will resolve according to the debutant that finishes the main tournament at the 2026 Masters Tournament at Augusta National with the lowest cumulative score to par. Debutant is defined exclusively as a player who is participating in their first Masters Tournament at Augusta National. Players who have previously participated will not be considered. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 4. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 3. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 2. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 1. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more eagles thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records more birdies thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records fewer bogeys thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists,this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 Masters Tournament at Augusta National is cancelled, postponed after April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if a debutant leader has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the Masters website (https://www.masters.com/leaderboard).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket both resolve on the same underlying event (lowest-scoring debutant at 2026 Masters) but differ in scope and tie-breaking methodology. Kalshi uses 22 individual binary markets (one per named player), while Polymarket uses a categorical structure with named players plus catch-all 'Other' and placeholder options, with detailed tie-breaking rules absent from Kalshi.Hero tip: Both platforms will identify the same winner (the debutant with the lowest total strokes who completes the tournament), but Polymarket's explicit tie-breaking hierarchy (Round 4 score, then Round 3, then eagles, birdies, bogeys, alphabetical) provides more precision in edge cases. If you trade on Kalshi, you rely on implicit tie-breaking; on Polymarket, the tie-breaking is contractually defined. Bet the same player on both platforms for consistency, but be aware Polymarket has more granular resolution rules.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Aligned with Polymarket on core outcome: resolves YES if a named debutant records the lowest total strokes among all debutants who complete the full 2026 Masters Tournament. However, Kalshi provides no explicit tie-breaking rules; it simply states 'If [Player] records the lowest total strokes among all Debutant golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.' Kalshi uses 22 separate binary markets, one per player.
  • Polymarket: Aligned with Kalshi on core outcome: resolves based on 'the debutant that finishes the main tournament at the 2026 Masters Tournament at Augusta National with the lowest cumulative score to par.' Polymarket diverges by explicitly defining a detailed tie-breaking cascade: 'In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 4. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 3...' through alphabetical last-name ordering. Polymarket uses a categorical structure with named players, 'Other', and placeholder options.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.