TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
The Masters 2026: Player to shoot Best Round
Volume:
$305,156
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether any golfer at the 2026 Masters Tournament will shoot a round score below a specified threshold during any of the four tournament rounds. The market resolves YES if at least one player achieves a score meeting or exceeding the performance benchmark; otherwise it resolves NO.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Kalshi resolves YES if ANY golfer shoots below specified score thresholds (64.5, 63.5, 67.5, 66.5, or 65.5 strokes), while Polymarket resolves based on which individual player shoots the single lowest round, with alphabetical tie-breaking and an 'Other' catch-all for cancellations or indeterminate outcomes.Hero Tip:
These markets are not interchangeable. Kalshi is a threshold-based YES/NO binary on whether a sub-threshold round occurs at all. Polymarket is a player-selection market where exactly one player (or 'Other') wins. A YES resolution on Kalshi does not predict which Polymarket player resolves YES. If you trade both platforms, treat them as separate events with different payoff structures.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if any golfer in the tournament records a round score below any of five specified thresholds (64.5, 63.5, 67.5, 66.5, or 65.5 strokes). This is a binary threshold-based market with no player selection component. Key quote: 'If any golfer in the tournament records a round score of below 64.5 strokes in any round of the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves to the specific player who finishes with the best (lowest) score in a single full round at the 2026 Masters, with alphabetical last-name tie-breaking and an 'Other' resolution if the tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 20, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or the best-round player cannot be determined. Primary source is the official Masters website leaderboard. Key quote: 'This market will resolve according to the player that finishes with the best score in a single full round at the main tournament at the 2026 Masters Tournament at Augusta National. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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