TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
The Masters 2026: Best LIV Player
Description
This market will resolve according to the player currently playing in LIV that finishes the main tournament at the 2026 Masters Tournament at Augusta National with the lowest cumulative score to par. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 4. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 3. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 2. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with the lower score in Round 1. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more eagles thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records more birdies thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player who records fewer bogeys thus far in the main tournament. If a tie still persists,this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 Masters Tournament at Augusta National is cancelled, postponed after April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if a LIV leader has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the Masters website (https://www.masters.com/leaderboard).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi lists 10 named individual players as separate binary markets (each resolving YES if that player records the lowest strokes among LIV golfers), while Polymarket uses placeholder player codes (Player A through J) alongside named players and includes an 'Other' catch-all option with detailed tie-breaking rules and explicit cancellation/postponement conditions. The core resolution logic differs: Kalshi treats each named player as a standalone YES/NO outcome, whereas Polymarket structures the market as a single categorical question with multiple mutually exclusive outcomes and comprehensive tie-breaking procedures.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on individual binary outcomes for each named player. If you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on a categorical market where exactly one outcome resolves YES (or 'Other' if the tournament is cancelled/postponed after April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no LIV leader is declared). Polymarket's tie-breaking cascade (Round 4 score, then Round 3, then Round 2, then Round 1, then eagles, then birdies, then bogeys, then alphabetical last name) is explicit and detailed, whereas Kalshi provides no tie-breaking guidance. Additionally, Polymarket explicitly references the Masters website as the primary resolution source and includes a hard deadline for postponement (April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), while Kalshi does not.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi structures the market as 10 separate binary YES/NO outcomes, one for each named player (Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Smith, Bubba Watson, Charl Schwartzel, Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Carlos Ortiz, Sergio Garcia, Tom McKibbin, Tyrrell Hatton). Each market resolves YES if that player 'records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament.' No tie-breaking rules, cancellation clauses, or explicit resolution source are provided.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket structures the market as a single categorical question with 22 mutually exclusive outcomes: 10 named players (Dustin Johnson, Sergio Garcia, Tom McKibbin, Jon Rahm, Carlos Ortiz, Cameron Smith, Charl Schwartzel, Bryson DeChambeau, Tyrrell Hatton, Bubba Watson), 10 placeholder codes (Player A through J), and 'Other.' Resolution is based on 'the player currently playing in LIV that finishes the main tournament at the 2026 Masters Tournament at Augusta National with the lowest cumulative score to par.' Comprehensive tie-breaking cascade is provided (Round 4, Round 3, Round 2, Round 1, eagles, birdies, bogeys, alphabetical last name). Explicit cancellation/postponement clause: if the tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no LIV leader is declared within that timeframe, the market resolves to 'Other.' Primary resolution source is the official Masters website (https://www.masters.com/leaderboard).
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