TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Texas Longhorns vs. UCLA Bruins (W)
Volume:
$1,081,659
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market resolves based on the outcome of the Women's Basketball game between the Texas Longhorns and UCLA Bruins scheduled for April 3 at 9:30 PM ET. The winner is determined by the final score including any overtime periods, with the market resolving to either "Texas Longhorns" or "UCLA Bruins" accordingly.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Kalshi resolves based on point-spread thresholds (11 separate spread conditions), while Polymarket resolves based on simple match winner (Texas or UCLA), making it impossible for both platforms to align on a single outcome in most scenarios.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge these markets. A Kalshi YES bet (e.g., UCLA wins by >2.5 points) can coexist with a Polymarket UCLA Bruins bet, but they measure different things. Kalshi's 11 spread conditions create multiple YES outcomes; Polymarket has only two mutually exclusive outcomes. Verify which resolution framework matches your actual prediction before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES based on 11 distinct point-spread thresholds across both teams. Examples include 'UCLA wins by more than 2.5 points' (market 9), 'Texas wins by more than 1.5 points' (market 3), and 'Texas wins by more than 16.5 points' (market 5). Each threshold is a separate YES condition; the market does not specify which spread threshold applies to the actual game outcome.
- Polymarket: Outlier: Resolves to exactly one of two categorical outcomes: 'Texas Longhorns' if Texas wins, or 'UCLA Bruins' if UCLA wins, based on final score including overtime. No point spreads are referenced. Source is NCAA official records.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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