A college basketball game between Tennessee State Tigers and UT Martin Skyhawks scheduled for February 28, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. Multiple prediction markets cover the moneyline outcome, point spread variations, and total points over/under.
Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction where both possible game outcomes (Tennessee-Martin wins OR Tennessee St. wins) are stated to resolve to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket markets are internally consistent but operate on different resolution mechanics (moneyline, spreads, totals).
Hero Tip:
Avoid the Kalshi market entirely until the platform issues a clarification or amendment. The Polymarket moneyline, spread, and total markets are logically sound and can be settled based on final game score and overtime inclusion. Treat Kalshi as data-unreliable for trading purposes.
Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket: Four distinct markets with unified logic: (1) Moneyline resolves to winner name; (2) Spread -2.5 resolves to UT Martin if they win by 3+, else Tennessee State; (3) O/U 143.5 resolves to Over if combined score is 144+, else Under; (4) Spread -3.5 resolves to UT Martin if they win by 4+, else Tennessee State. All postponements keep market open; cancellations resolve 50-50. Key quote: 'The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.'
Kalshi: Single market with contradictory resolution logic: 'If Tennessee-Martin wins...resolve to Yes' AND 'If Tennessee St. wins...resolve to Yes'. Both mutually exclusive outcomes map to identical resolution value (Yes), creating logical impossibility. No fallback for postponement or cancellation stated. Key quote: Both outcomes explicitly resolve to Yes, violating binary market structure.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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