TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Switzerland vs. Germany
Volume:
$3,605,470
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Friday, March 27, 2026 between Switzerland and Germany.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents three separate binary markets (Switzerland wins, Germany wins, Tie) that each resolve YES independently, while Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive markets (Switzerland wins, Germany wins, Draw) where exactly one resolves YES. This creates a fundamental structural difference in how outcomes map to market resolutions.Hero Tip:
On Kalshi, all three outcome markets can theoretically resolve YES simultaneously based on the rules as written, creating logical inconsistency. On Polymarket, the markets are properly mutually exclusive. If you trade Kalshi, clarify with the platform whether only one market should resolve YES (standard sports betting) or if the rules truly allow multiple simultaneous YES resolutions.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi structures the market as three independent binary propositions, each stating 'If [outcome] wins, then the market resolves to Yes.' This means Switzerland-wins market resolves YES if Switzerland wins, Germany-wins market resolves YES if Germany wins, and Tie market resolves YES if there is a tie. The rules do not explicitly state that only one can resolve YES, creating potential for multiple simultaneous YES resolutions.
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard sports betting logic: Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive markets where exactly one outcome occurs and exactly one market resolves YES. Switzerland-wins resolves YES only if Switzerland wins (otherwise NO), Germany-wins resolves YES only if Germany wins (otherwise NO), and Draw resolves YES only if the game ends in a draw (otherwise NO). The rules explicitly state 'Otherwise, this market will resolve to No,' ensuring mutual exclusivity.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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