TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
SV Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig
Volume:
$316,137
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Bundesliga match between SV Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig scheduled for April 4, 2026. Polymarket offers three separate binary markets (Bremen win, Draw, Leipzig win), while Kalshi offers a single market covering all three outcomes. All markets resolve based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents three separate binary markets (one for each outcome: Leipzig win, Bremen win, or tie), each resolving YES if that outcome occurs. Polymarket presents three separate binary markets (Bremen win YES/NO, Draw YES/NO, Leipzig win YES/NO), each resolving YES or NO based on the specific outcome. While both platforms use identical resolution scope (90 minutes plus stoppage time, same date and match), Kalshi's market structure is logically contradictory—it cannot resolve all three outcomes to YES simultaneously—whereas Polymarket's structure is standard and mutually exclusive.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's three markets appear to have a critical structural flaw: they state that each outcome (Leipzig win, Bremen win, tie) resolves to YES, but only one outcome can occur in a single match. Before trading Kalshi, clarify whether these are meant to be three separate markets with standard YES/NO resolution, or if there is a data entry error. Polymarket's markets are standard and unambiguous: bet YES on the outcome you expect, NO otherwise.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi presents three markets, each stating 'If [outcome] wins/occurs, then the market resolves to Yes,' creating a logical impossibility where all three cannot simultaneously resolve YES. The resolution scope is correct (90 minutes plus stoppage time, April 4, 2026 match), but the market structure violates basic mutual exclusivity. Key quote: 'If Leipzig wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Bremen wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket presents three standard binary markets with mutually exclusive outcomes: Bremen win (YES/NO), Draw (YES/NO), and Leipzig win (YES/NO). Each market resolves YES if that specific outcome occurs, NO otherwise. Resolution scope is identical (90 minutes plus stoppage time, April 4, 2026), with official Bundesliga statistics as primary source and credible reporting as fallback. Key quote: 'If SV Werder Bremen wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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