TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Surf FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Surf's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Most liquid price source available for Surf governance token at 4:00 PM ET on launch day plus one calendar dayCore resolution logic:
- Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered launched
- FDV = total token supply multiplied by token price
- Measurement occurs at exactly 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch
- Resolution uses the most liquid price source available at that timestamp
- Market resolves Yes if FDV exceeds the specified threshold; No otherwise
- If Surf does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, market resolves to No
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Launch Definition Ambiguity: Token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable; passive or restricted tokens do not qualify as launch
- Liquidity Source Selection: If multiple price sources exist at 4:00 PM ET, the most liquid source is used; this requires real-time judgment at resolution time
- Supply Uncertainty: FDV calculation depends on total token supply; if supply is variable or disputed, resolution may require official Surf documentation
- Deadline Non-Launch: If Surf has not launched a qualifying token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all markets in the group resolve to No regardless of any other factors
- Threshold Ordering: Markets are ordered by FDV threshold; if FDV is $250M, then $50M, $100M, and $200M resolve Yes, while $300M and $500M resolve No
Timing:
Resolution occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day immediately following the date Surf's governance token becomes actively, publicly transferable and tradableFollow the signals, not the noise
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