TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$198,735,462
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,413,651
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,238,334,809
499,092
Markets across
13,695
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,769
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Stars vs. Sabres
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for April 15 at 7:00PM ET: If the Stars win, the market will resolve to "Stars". If the Sabres win, the market will resolve to "Sabres". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket provides complete market specifications for the Stars vs. Sabres game (moneyline, spreads, and multiple over/under totals with explicit thresholds), while Kalshi's market description is incomplete and fails to specify resolution outcomes, making it fundamentally unresolvable as written.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's Stars vs. Sabres market until the platform clarifies its resolution logic. Polymarket's markets are fully specified and tradeable; Kalshi's market states only that 'if DAL wins, resolves to Yes' and 'if BUF wins, resolves to Yes'—which is logically impossible (both outcomes cannot resolve to Yes). Verify Kalshi's actual terms before placing any bets.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket provides fully specified markets with explicit resolution thresholds and logic. For moneyline, it resolves to 'Stars' or 'Sabres' based on final score including overtime and shootouts (with one goal added for shootout winner). For over/unders, it specifies exact goal thresholds (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5) and resolves Over if combined goals meet or exceed the threshold plus one. For spreads, it specifies exact margin requirements (2+ goals). All markets include postponement and cancellation clauses. Key quote: 'The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.'
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's market description contains a critical logical error and lacks essential resolution specifications. The stated rules are: 'If DAL Stars wins the Dallas at Buffalo professional hockey game scheduled for Apr 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If BUF Sabres wins the Dallas at Buffalo professional hockey game scheduled for Apr 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates an impossible condition where both outcomes resolve to Yes. The market does not specify: (1) how to handle overtime/shootouts, (2) whether a shootout goal counts toward the final score, (3) postponement or cancellation procedures, or (4) what 'wins' means (regulation only, or including overtime). Key quote: 'If DAL Stars wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If BUF Sabres wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
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