TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Stars vs. Maple Leafs
Volume:
$1,854,865
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Dallas Stars vs. Toronto Maple Leafs NHL game scheduled for April 13, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET. Markets cover moneyline (winner) and multiple over/under total goals thresholds (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5). Resolution is based on final regulation + overtime + shootout score, with shootout wins adding one goal to the winning team's total for over/under purposes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution logic for the same event. Kalshi's market resolves YES for ANY outcome (either team winning), making it logically incoherent. Polymarket offers multiple distinct markets (moneyline, multiple over/under thresholds, spreads) that resolve to specific outcomes based on final score and margin.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's market — it is logically broken and will resolve YES regardless of outcome, creating arbitrage risk. Trade only on Polymarket's suite of markets, which have clear, mutually exclusive resolution criteria. If you hold Kalshi YES, expect potential platform intervention or 50-50 resolution due to ambiguity.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's single market resolves YES if either the Maple Leafs win OR the Stars win — i.e., YES for all possible outcomes. This is a logical contradiction that makes the market unresolvable. Quote: 'If TOR Maple Leafs wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If DAL Stars wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers six separate markets with mutually exclusive resolution criteria: (1) Moneyline (Stars or Maple Leafs as winner), (2-6) Five over/under total-goals markets (thresholds: 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5, 10.5, 11.5, 12.5 goals), and (3) Two spread markets (Stars -1.5, Maple Leafs -1.5, Maple Leafs -2.5). Each resolves to a specific outcome based on final score. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Stars if the Stars win... If the Maple Leafs win, the market will resolve to Maple Leafs.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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