TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Stars vs. Avalanche
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 18 at 9:30PM ET: If the Stars win, the market will resolve to "Stars". If the Avalanche win, the market will resolve to "Avalanche". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different event types: Kalshi settles on moneyline outcome (either team winning), while Polymarket settles on multiple distinct markets including moneyline, multiple over/under thresholds, and spread. Kalshi's resolution logic is logically contradictory—both outcomes cannot simultaneously resolve to Yes.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's market as written. Kalshi's rules state 'If DAL Stars wins...resolves to Yes' AND 'If COL Avalanche wins...resolves to Yes'—this is impossible for a binary market. Clarify with Kalshi before placing bets. Polymarket markets are internally consistent and resolvable based on final game score and outcome.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's market contains a logical contradiction. The rules state 'If DAL Stars wins the Dallas at Colorado professional hockey game scheduled for Mar 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' and separately 'If COL Avalanche wins the Dallas at Colorado professional hockey game scheduled for Mar 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' Since exactly one team must win, both conditions cannot be true, making this market unresolvable as written.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers five separate, internally consistent markets covering moneyline (Stars vs. Avalanche), four over/under total goals markets (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5), and one spread market (Avalanche -1.5). Each market has clear, mutually exclusive resolution paths based on final score and outcome, with consistent handling of postponement (remain open) and cancellation (50-50 split).
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