TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan
Volume:
$2,657,629
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Serie A game, scheduled for Monday, April 6, 2026 between SSC Napoli and AC Milan.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive binary markets (Milan win, Napoli win, draw) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi presents three independent YES/NO markets that all resolve YES regardless of outcome, creating a logical contradiction and making Kalshi's markets fundamentally unresolvable.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets in this group. Kalshi's structure guarantees all three markets resolve YES simultaneously, which is logically impossible for a single match outcome. Polymarket's three mutually exclusive markets are the only coherent settlement framework.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket structures the event as three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one outcome (Milan win, Napoli win, or draw) will resolve YES and the other two resolve NO. Resolution uses official Serie A statistics within 2 hours of match conclusion, or credible reporting consensus if official stats are delayed. Postponement keeps markets open; cancellation with no makeup resolves all to NO except draw (which resolves YES). Key quote: 'If AC Milan wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' and 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve No' (draw market resolves YES on cancellation).
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi presents three independent markets, each with identical resolution logic: 'If [Milan/Tie/Napoli] wins the match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.' This structure creates a logical impossibility—all three markets would resolve YES simultaneously regardless of actual match outcome, violating the fundamental constraint that exactly one team wins or the match draws. No cancellation or postponement rules are specified. Key quote: 'If Milan wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Napoli wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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