TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
SS Lazio vs. Parma Calcio 1913
Volume:
$978,375
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Serie A game, scheduled for Saturday, April 4, 2026 between SS Lazio and Parma Calcio 1913.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents three separate binary markets (one for each outcome: Parma win, Lazio win, or draw), where exactly one resolves YES. Polymarket presents three separate binary markets (Lazio win, draw, Parma win) where each resolves independently based on the actual match outcome. The fundamental difference is that Kalshi's structure implies mutual exclusivity by design, while Polymarket's structure allows only one outcome to be true based on the match result, but the resolution logic and sources are otherwise aligned.Hero Tip:
Both platforms resolve based on the official Serie A statistics within 90 minutes plus stoppage time, and both use the same primary source (Lega Serie A). However, Kalshi's market structure is unusual—it presents three markets that collectively guarantee exactly one YES resolution, whereas Polymarket presents three independent binary markets. For practical trading purposes, treat both as equivalent: bet YES on the outcome you expect, and that market will resolve YES while the others resolve NO. The divergence is structural, not substantive.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi structures the event as three mutually exclusive markets, each stating 'If [outcome] wins...then the market resolves to Yes,' implying that exactly one of the three markets will resolve YES and the other two will resolve NO. All three markets reference the same match (90 minutes plus stoppage time) and the same date (April 4, 2026).
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket structures the event as three independent binary markets (Lazio win YES/NO, draw YES/NO, Parma win YES/NO), each with its own resolution rule. Each market resolves YES or NO based on the actual match outcome. All three markets reference the same match (90 minutes plus stoppage time), the same date (April 4, 2026), and the same primary source (Lega Serie A official statistics).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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