TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC
kalshi
polymarket

Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC

Volume:
$1,043,756

Southampton FC

 - Polymarket

Southampton FC - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 5, 2026

Closed: Apr 4, 10:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Southampton FC

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$297,510
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Arsenal FC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$621,411
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$59,346
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Arsenal wins by over 1.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$56,645
N/A
N/A
$45,295
Settled
No
kalshi

Arsenal wins by over 2.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,182
N/A
N/A
$6,354
Settled
No
kalshi

Southampton wins by over 2.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,023
N/A
N/A
$1,023
Settled
No
kalshi

Southampton wins by over 1.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$639
N/A
N/A
$639
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event is for the upcoming FA Cup game, scheduled for Saturday, April 4, 2026 between Southampton FC and Arsenal FC.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi settles on goal-differential thresholds (>1.5 or >2.5 goals), while Polymarket settles on binary match outcomes (win/loss/draw). The platforms use fundamentally different resolution scopes: Kalshi requires specific margin thresholds, whereas Polymarket resolves on simple match result.Hero tip: If you bet on Kalshi, your YES outcome requires a team to win by a specific goal margin (>1.5 or >2.5 goals). On Polymarket, betting YES on Southampton or Arsenal win resolves YES for any victory, regardless of margin. A 1-0 Southampton win resolves YES on Polymarket but NO on all four Kalshi markets. Conversely, a 2-0 Arsenal win resolves YES on Kalshi market #4 but also YES on Polymarket's Arsenal win market—outcomes may diverge significantly depending on final scoreline.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Settles on goal-differential thresholds across four separate markets, each tied to a specific margin requirement. Market #1 resolves YES if Southampton wins by >2.5 goals; #2 if Arsenal wins by >1.5 goals; #3 if Southampton wins by >1.5 goals; #4 if Arsenal wins by >2.5 goals. Resolution is based on 'after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties)'.
  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Settles on binary match outcomes (Southampton win, Arsenal win, or draw) with no goal-margin thresholds. Three separate markets resolve YES/NO based solely on which team wins or if the match ends level. Resolution is based on 'the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time' and uses official FA statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours of conclusion.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.