TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC
Volume:
$1,043,756
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming FA Cup game, scheduled for Saturday, April 4, 2026 between Southampton FC and Arsenal FC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi settles on goal-differential thresholds (>1.5 or >2.5 goals), while Polymarket settles on binary match outcomes (win/loss/draw). The platforms use fundamentally different resolution scopes: Kalshi requires specific margin thresholds, whereas Polymarket resolves on simple match result.Hero Tip:
If you bet on Kalshi, your YES outcome requires a team to win by a specific goal margin (>1.5 or >2.5 goals). On Polymarket, betting YES on Southampton or Arsenal win resolves YES for any victory, regardless of margin. A 1-0 Southampton win resolves YES on Polymarket but NO on all four Kalshi markets. Conversely, a 2-0 Arsenal win resolves YES on Kalshi market #4 but also YES on Polymarket's Arsenal win market—outcomes may diverge significantly depending on final scoreline.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Settles on goal-differential thresholds across four separate markets, each tied to a specific margin requirement. Market #1 resolves YES if Southampton wins by >2.5 goals; #2 if Arsenal wins by >1.5 goals; #3 if Southampton wins by >1.5 goals; #4 if Arsenal wins by >2.5 goals. Resolution is based on 'after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties)'.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Settles on binary match outcomes (Southampton win, Arsenal win, or draw) with no goal-margin thresholds. Three separate markets resolve YES/NO based solely on which team wins or if the match ends level. Resolution is based on 'the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time' and uses official FA statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours of conclusion.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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