TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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South Africa vs. Panama
kalshi
polymarket

South Africa vs. Panama

Volume:
$837,260

Tie

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 28, 2026

Closed: Mar 27, 4:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$162,050
N/A
N/A
$94,898
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw (South Africa vs. Panama)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$86,176
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

South Africa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$221,581
N/A
N/A
$104,969
Settled
No
polymarket

South Africa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$90,725
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Panama

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$197,272
N/A
N/A
$82,417
Settled
No
polymarket

Panama

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$79,456
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Friday, March 27, 2026 between South Africa and Panama.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi resolves YES for any outcome (South Africa win, Panama win, or draw), while Polymarket uses three separate binary markets that each resolve YES or NO based on specific outcomes. This creates fundamentally different market structures and resolution logic.Hero tip: Kalshi's market appears to be a catch-all that resolves YES regardless of match outcome, making it unsuitable for directional betting. Polymarket offers three distinct binary markets (South Africa win, Panama win, draw) where exactly one will resolve YES and two will resolve NO. Trade on Polymarket if you want directional exposure; avoid Kalshi's ambiguous structure.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi defines three separate YES conditions covering all possible outcomes (South Africa wins, Panama wins, or Tie), meaning the market resolves YES regardless of the match result. The rules state 'If Panama wins...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If South Africa wins...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes,' creating a logical contradiction where every outcome triggers YES resolution.
  • Polymarket: Aligned with standard match resolution: Polymarket uses three separate binary markets where each outcome (South Africa win, Panama win, draw) is mutually exclusive. Each market resolves YES for its specific outcome and NO for all others. The rules explicitly state 'If South Africa wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No,' establishing clear binary logic for each outcome market.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.