TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
South Africa vs. Panama
Volume:
$837,260
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Friday, March 27, 2026 between South Africa and Panama.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves YES for any outcome (South Africa win, Panama win, or draw), while Polymarket uses three separate binary markets that each resolve YES or NO based on specific outcomes. This creates fundamentally different market structures and resolution logic.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's market appears to be a catch-all that resolves YES regardless of match outcome, making it unsuitable for directional betting. Polymarket offers three distinct binary markets (South Africa win, Panama win, draw) where exactly one will resolve YES and two will resolve NO. Trade on Polymarket if you want directional exposure; avoid Kalshi's ambiguous structure.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi defines three separate YES conditions covering all possible outcomes (South Africa wins, Panama wins, or Tie), meaning the market resolves YES regardless of the match result. The rules state 'If Panama wins...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If South Africa wins...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes,' creating a logical contradiction where every outcome triggers YES resolution.
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard match resolution: Polymarket uses three separate binary markets where each outcome (South Africa win, Panama win, draw) is mutually exclusive. Each market resolves YES for its specific outcome and NO for all others. The rules explicitly state 'If South Africa wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No,' establishing clear binary logic for each outcome market.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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