TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 5PM ET
Volume:
$50,121
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana's price moves up or down on March 6, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average. Both platforms measure directional price movement but employ fundamentally different data sources, methodologies, and settlement mechanics.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible data sources (Binance SOL/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI), measurement windows (1-hour candle open/close vs. 60-second average), and resolution logic (directional comparison vs. absolute price threshold). A single SOL price movement can resolve differently on each platform.Hero Tip:
Polymarket resolves based on whether the Binance 1H candle close is >= open (binary directional bet). Kalshi resolves based on whether CF Benchmarks 60-second average exceeds 59.9999 (effectively a YES if price is above ~60, NO if below). These measure different things. If you hold both, monitor Binance 1H candle direction separately from CF Benchmarks price level. Kalshi's 50 conditions are logically redundant; only the lowest threshold (59.9999) matters for final resolution.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary directional comparison of Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves UP if close >= open, DOWN if close < open. Data source: Binance official SOL/USDT pair. Key Quote: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 50 redundant YES/NO conditions based on CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average before 5 PM EST. All resolve YES if average > 59.9999, NO otherwise. Data source: CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EST is above [threshold] at 5 PM EST on Mar 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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