TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$158,613,015
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,206,641,323
499,459
Markets across
13,676
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,789
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 5PM ET
Volume:
$4,325
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana (SOL) price moves up or down on March 4, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average price levels. Both markets resolve on the same date and time but employ fundamentally different price sources and measurement methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible price sources (Binance SOL/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI), different measurement windows (1-hour candle open/close vs. 60-second average), and distinct resolution logic (binary up/down vs. 75 independent price-level thresholds). The same SOL price movement at 5 PM ET could resolve differently on each platform.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with independent resolution paths. Polymarket outcome depends on Binance 1H candle open vs. close; Kalshi outcome depends on whether CF Benchmarks 60-second average exceeds your specific threshold. Price sources may diverge during volatility. Confirm your Kalshi contract threshold before trading, as each is a distinct binary. Do not assume cross-platform hedging.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary up/down resolution based on Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves UP if close price >= open price; DOWN otherwise. Single source: Binance official chart data. Measurement: full 1-hour candle from specified start time. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: 75 independent YES/NO contracts, each tied to a distinct price threshold (42.9999 to 116.9999 USD). Each resolves YES if CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second simple average before 5 PM EST exceeds the threshold; no explicit NO condition stated. Source: CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI reference rate. Measurement: 60-second window immediately before 5 PM EST. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EST is above [threshold] at 5 PM EST on Mar 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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