TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Solana Up or Down - March 4, 5PM ET
polymarket
kalshi

Solana Up or Down - March 4, 5PM ET

Volume:
$4,325

$90 or above

 - Kalshi

$90 or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Closed: Mar 4, 5:05 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

$90 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,618
N/A
N/A
$1,572
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$87 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$662
N/A
N/A
$434
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$83 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$290
N/A
N/A
$280
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$86 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$246
N/A
N/A
$226
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$92 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$205
N/A
N/A
$167
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$88 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$178
N/A
N/A
$130
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$89 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$161
N/A
N/A
$101
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$77 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$109
N/A
N/A
$109
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$81 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$44
N/A
N/A
$44
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$91 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$28
N/A
N/A
$16
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$84 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17
N/A
N/A
$17
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$85 or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
$7
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$94 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$264
N/A
N/A
$182
Settled
No
kalshi

$93 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$260
N/A
N/A
$160
Settled
No
kalshi

$96 or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$236
N/A
N/A
$236
Settled
No
polymarket

Solana Up or Down - March 4, 5PM ET

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$76 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$97 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$73 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$95 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$65 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$53 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$106 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

$45 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

$113 or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 76

Description

This event group tracks whether Solana (SOL) price moves up or down on March 4, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average price levels. Both markets resolve on the same date and time but employ fundamentally different price sources and measurement methodologies.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi employ incompatible price sources (Binance SOL/USDT vs. CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI), different measurement windows (1-hour candle open/close vs. 60-second average), and distinct resolution logic (binary up/down vs. 75 independent price-level thresholds). The same SOL price movement at 5 PM ET could resolve differently on each platform.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with independent resolution paths. Polymarket outcome depends on Binance 1H candle open vs. close; Kalshi outcome depends on whether CF Benchmarks 60-second average exceeds your specific threshold. Price sources may diverge during volatility. Confirm your Kalshi contract threshold before trading, as each is a distinct binary. Do not assume cross-platform hedging.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary up/down resolution based on Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle. Resolves UP if close price >= open price; DOWN otherwise. Single source: Binance official chart data. Measurement: full 1-hour candle from specified start time. Key Quote: 'The close C and open O displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
  • Kalshi: 75 independent YES/NO contracts, each tied to a distinct price threshold (42.9999 to 116.9999 USD). Each resolves YES if CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second simple average before 5 PM EST exceeds the threshold; no explicit NO condition stated. Source: CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI reference rate. Measurement: 60-second window immediately before 5 PM EST. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EST is above [threshold] at 5 PM EST on Mar 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.