TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
Volume:
$17,749
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana's price moves up or down during a specific 4-hour window on March 23, 2026 (4:00 PM–8:00 PM ET). Polymarket resolves based on Chainlink's SOL/USD data stream comparing end-of-period to start-of-period price, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI index sampled at 5:00 PM EDT with 61 separate price-level thresholds.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct resolution methodologies using different data sources, measurement windows, and outcome structures. Polymarket uses a 4-hour directional comparison (Chainlink), while Kalshi uses a single-point-in-time snapshot (CF Benchmarks) with 61 granular price-level outcomes.Hero Tip:
Treat these as separate markets with independent resolution paths. Polymarket outcome depends on full 4-hour price movement; Kalshi outcomes depend on a single 5 PM EDT snapshot. Chainlink and CF Benchmarks may produce different price readings. Hedge or arbitrage only after confirming both data sources at settlement time.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Chainlink SOL/USD price comparison: end-of-window (8:00 PM ET) versus start-of-window (4:00 PM ET). Resolves Up if end >= start. Single outcome per market. Source: Chainlink SOL/USD data stream at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd.
- Kalshi: 61 separate Yes/No markets, each tied to a discrete price threshold. All sample CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average at exactly 5:00 PM EDT. Each market resolves Yes if average > threshold (e.g., $47.9999, $48.9999, ... $121.9999). Source: CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI index.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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