TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 5PM ET
Volume:
$247
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana (SOL) price moves up or down on March 22, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses a 1-hour candle comparison on Binance SOL/USDT, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI index averaged over 60 seconds. Both markets resolve based on price data at the same timestamp but from fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use incompatible price sources (Binance spot 1H candle vs. CF Benchmarks 60-second index average) and incompatible measurement methods (binary direction vs. discrete price bands). Resolution outcomes may diverge even if SOL moves in the same direction on both indices.Hero Tip:
These markets are NOT hedges or arbitrage pairs. Polymarket resolves on Binance SOL/USDT 1H candle open/close comparison. Kalshi resolves on CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average matching one of 74 price bands. Exchange basis risk, index methodology differences, and timing precision (1H vs. 60-second window) can cause conflicting outcomes. Trade each market independently based on your view of its specific data source.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on Binance SOL/USDT 1H candle. Resolves Up if close >= open for the 1H candle beginning at 5 PM ET on March 22, 2026. Resolves Down otherwise. Source is Binance SOL/USDT pair only. Key Quote: 'The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: Price-level resolution based on CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average at 5 PM EDT March 22, 2026. Resolves Yes if average falls into any of 74 discrete $1 bands ($54-$54.9999 through $126-$126.9999), or below $54, or above $126.9999. All other prices resolve No. Source is CF Benchmarks index. Key Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is between [price range] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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