TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 5PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the SOL/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution sources and logic. Polymarket resolves based on Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi resolves based on 48 separate price thresholds using CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average. These markets will produce different outcomes for the same event.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will settle identically. Polymarket is a simple binary (Up if close >= open, Down otherwise) tied to Binance data. Kalshi appears to be a malformed market group with 48 conflicting yes/no conditions that all resolve YES if price exceeds their respective thresholds—there is no explicit NO condition, making Kalshi's resolution logic incomplete and potentially unresolvable. Arbitrage or hedge accordingly.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Resolves based on Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle comparison. Market resolves UP if close price >= open price for the 1H candle beginning at March 20, 5PM ET, DOWN otherwise. Source is explicitly Binance: 'The close and open displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant 1H candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized.'
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Resolves based on CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average price at 5PM EDT March 20, 2026. Contains 48 separate conditions, each stating 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Mar 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' No explicit NO condition is provided; all 48 rules resolve to YES if their threshold is exceeded.
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