TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 5PM ET
Volume:
$11,301
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether Solana's price moves up or down during a specific 1-hour window on April 20, 2026 at 5 PM ET. Polymarket uses Binance SOL/USDT candle open/close comparison, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average. Both measure directional price movement but employ fundamentally different data sources and methodologies.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution methodologies: Polymarket measures a binary price direction (open vs. close) on a single 1-hour candle from Binance SOL/USDT, while Kalshi offers 75 separate binary contracts each tied to specific price thresholds on CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI. These are not the same market and cannot be reconciled.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets are fungible. On Polymarket, you are betting on directional movement (Up or Down) in a single hour. On Kalshi, you are selecting from 75 discrete price-level contracts, each resolving independently. A Polymarket 'Up' outcome does not map to any specific Kalshi contract. Arbitrage is impossible; treat them as separate events.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary Up/Down resolution based on SOL/USDT 1-hour candle open vs. close price on Binance. Resolves UP if close >= open, DOWN otherwise. Single market, single outcome. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the SOL/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title.'
- Kalshi: 75 separate binary contracts, each tied to whether the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT exceeds a specific threshold ($42.9999 through $116.9999). Each contract resolves YES or NO independently based on its own price level. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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