TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.2b
24H VOL:
$217,900,088
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,256,149,940
499,530
Markets across
13,705
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,785
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 5PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the SOL/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution sources and methodologies. Kalshi resolves based on CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI 60-second average with 50 overlapping price thresholds, while Polymarket resolves based on Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle open/close comparison. These are measuring different instruments, different time windows, and different price mechanics, making simultaneous resolution impossible.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets move together. A Binance 1H candle can close up while the CF Benchmarks RTI average at 5PM EDT falls below its opening price, or vice versa. Kalshi's 50 thresholds create granular price-level bets; Polymarket is a simple binary directional bet. Hedge accordingly or choose your platform based on your price forecast precision.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Resolves YES if CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI simple average over 60 seconds prior to 5PM EDT on Apr 17, 2026 exceeds any of 50 discrete price thresholds (ranging from $59.9999 to $108.9999). Each threshold is a separate YES condition. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Resolves UP if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the SOL/USDT 1-hour candle beginning at 5PM ET on Apr 17, 2026 (i.e., the candle from 5PM-6PM). Resolves DOWN otherwise. Data source is Binance SOL/USDT pair only. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the SOL/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title.'
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