TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Slovakia vs. Kosovo
Volume:
$1,275,147
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Europe World Cup Qualifiers game, scheduled for Thursday, March 26, 2026 between Slovakia and Kosovo.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure is logically incoherent: all three outcome conditions (Kosovo wins, Slovakia wins, Tie) resolve to YES, making it impossible to distinguish between outcomes. Polymarket uses three separate binary markets (Draw, Slovakia Win, Kosovo Win) with mutually exclusive resolution logic, which is the standard and resolvable approach.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's market — it contains a fatal logical flaw where every possible match outcome triggers a YES resolution, rendering the market unresolvable and unhedgeable. Trade only on Polymarket's three separate markets, which properly isolate each outcome.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's market structure contains a logical contradiction. All three conditions state 'then the market resolves to Yes' — meaning Kosovo win = YES, Slovakia win = YES, and Tie = YES. This makes the market unable to differentiate outcomes and fundamentally unresolvable. Quote: 'If Kosovo wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Slovakia wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard market design: Polymarket uses three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive outcomes. Each market resolves YES for exactly one outcome (Draw resolves YES only if draw; Slovakia Win resolves YES only if Slovakia wins; Kosovo Win resolves YES only if Kosovo wins) and NO for all others. Quote: 'If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' and 'If Slovakia wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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