TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Sevilla FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
Volume:
$5,602,362
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a La Liga soccer match between Sevilla FC and Rayo Vallecano de Madrid scheduled for March 8, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket are betting on the final outcome (Sevilla win, draw, or Vallecano win) within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi markets contain a logical contradiction: three mutually exclusive outcomes (Vallecano win, tie, Sevilla win) are each stated to resolve YES, which is impossible for a single match. Additionally, Polymarket's cancellation rules are asymmetric: the draw market resolves YES on cancellation, while win markets resolve NO.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets until the market structure is clarified—the current logic is unresolvable. On Polymarket, note that only the draw market pays out if the game is canceled. If you expect cancellation risk, the draw market is the only hedge. For normal match resolution, all three Polymarket markets follow consistent 90+stoppage logic and use LaLiga official statistics as primary source.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: All three markets (Vallecano win, tie, Sevilla win) are stated to resolve YES. This is logically impossible since only one outcome can occur. The market structure appears to be a template error or data entry failure. Key Quote: 'then the market resolves to Yes' repeated identically for three mutually exclusive outcomes.
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with asymmetric cancellation rules. Sevilla win and Vallecano win markets resolve NO on cancellation; draw market resolves YES on cancellation. Win markets resolve NO if game is postponed indefinitely; draw market remains open. Key Quote: Draw market: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve Yes' vs Win markets: 'this market will resolve No'.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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