TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Senators vs. Lightning
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 28 at 1:00PM ET: If the Senators win, the market will resolve to "Senators". If the Lightning win, the market will resolve to "Lightning". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market resolves YES for both possible outcomes (Senators win OR Lightning win), making it logically contradictory and unresolvable. Polymarket correctly structures five distinct markets (moneyline, three over/under totals, and one spread) with mutually exclusive outcomes. This is a fundamental data integrity failure on Kalshi.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market. It is mathematically impossible to lose — both teams winning triggers a YES resolution. This violates basic market logic and suggests a settlement rule error. Polymarket's markets are standard and resolvable. Treat Kalshi as broken until corrected.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Resolves YES if 'OTT Senators wins' OR 'TB Lightning wins' — meaning YES occurs regardless of which team wins the game. This creates a logical contradiction where the market cannot resolve NO under any realistic scenario. Key quote: 'If OTT Senators wins the Ottawa at Tampa Bay professional hockey game scheduled for Mar 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If TB Lightning wins the Ottawa at Tampa Bay professional hockey game scheduled for Mar 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Offers five separate, mutually exclusive markets: (1) Moneyline (Senators vs. Lightning with 50-50 cancellation clause), (2) O/U 4.5 goals, (3) O/U 5.5 goals, (4) O/U 6.5 goals, (5) O/U 7.5 goals, and (6) Spread Lightning -1.5. Each market has a single, well-defined outcome based on final score or goal total. Key quote: 'If the Senators win, the market will resolve to Senators. If the Lightning win, the market will resolve to Lightning.'
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