TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$230,557,910
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,202,344,730
501,342
Markets across
13,602
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,822
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Senators vs. Capitals
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 18 at 7:30PM ET: If the Senators win, the market will resolve to "Senators". If the Capitals win, the market will resolve to "Capitals". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market resolves YES for any outcome (either team winning), making it logically unresolvable and fundamentally broken. Polymarket correctly structures mutually exclusive outcomes (Senators, Capitals, or specific totals/spreads). This is a data integrity failure on Kalshi's core winner-take-all market.Hero Tip:
Avoid the Kalshi winner market entirely — it will resolve YES regardless of who wins, making it impossible to lose. Polymarket's equivalent market is properly structured with mutually exclusive outcomes. Trade only on Polymarket for this event group, or use Kalshi's spread/total markets if available separately.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's winner market (items 1-2) states 'If OTT Senators wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If WSH Capitals wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical contradiction where both outcomes resolve YES, making the market unresolvable. No NO resolution condition is defined.
- Polymarket: Aligned with proper market design: Polymarket's winner market (item 2) correctly specifies mutually exclusive outcomes: 'If the Senators win, the market will resolve to Senators' and 'If the Capitals win, the market will resolve to Capitals.' Additionally, Polymarket provides well-defined total markets (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) and spread markets (Senators -1.5, Capitals -1.5) with clear thresholds and consistent postponement/cancellation rules across all markets.
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