Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Kalshi apply identical resolution logic: the match outcome is determined by the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (excluding extra time or penalties), with the same postponement and cancellation rules, and both reference official governing body statistics as the primary source.
Primary resolution logic:
Official Bundesliga statistics and the governing body or event organizers' final match records, with fallback to credible reporting consensus if official statistics are not published within 2 hours of match conclusion.
Core resolution logic:
The match is evaluated based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only; extra time and penalties are excluded.
Exactly one of the three markets (Freiburg win, Heidenheim win, or draw) will resolve YES, and the other two will resolve NO.
If the match is postponed, all markets remain open until the match is completed.
If the match is canceled entirely with no make-up game, Polymarket's draw market resolves YES while the win markets resolve NO; Kalshi's outcome-agnostic structure means all three markets resolve YES (as any outcome, including a tie, satisfies the condition).
Edge cases & Clarifications:
Match Postponement: If the match scheduled for April 19, 2026 is postponed, all markets remain open and unresolved until the match is actually played and completed.
Match Cancellation Without Makeup: If the match is canceled entirely with no rescheduled makeup game, Polymarket's draw market resolves YES while win markets resolve NO. Kalshi's structure resolves all three markets to YES since any outcome (including a tie) technically occurs.
Resolution Source Hierarchy: Primary source is official Bundesliga and governing body statistics. If official statistics are not published within 2 hours of match conclusion, credible reporting consensus is used as fallback.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official publication of the final match result by Bundesliga or the governing body, or within 2 hours after match conclusion via credible reporting consensus if official statistics are delayed.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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