TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. SE Palmeiras
Volume:
$570,247
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Brazil Série A game, scheduled for Sunday, April 12, 2026 between SC Corinthians Paulista and SE Palmeiras.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Palmeiras win, Draw, Corinthians win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi defines three markets that all resolve YES simultaneously for the same match outcome, creating a logical contradiction in the Kalshi structure.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi markets in this group without clarification from the platform. Kalshi's structure violates basic probability logic — all three outcomes cannot simultaneously resolve YES. Polymarket's three markets are coherent and mutually exclusive. If you hold Kalshi positions, seek immediate platform guidance on which market is the actual settlement vehicle.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard match resolution logic: Polymarket defines three separate binary markets where exactly one outcome (Palmeiras win, Draw, or Corinthians win) resolves YES and the others resolve NO. Each market has identical resolution source (CBF official statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours) and scope (90 minutes plus stoppage time only). Key quote: 'If SE Palmeiras wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' — applied consistently across all three outcome markets.
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's structure is logically incoherent. It defines three separate markets where Market 1 resolves YES if Corinthians wins, Market 2 resolves YES if Palmeiras wins, and Market 3 resolves YES if the match ends in a tie. This means all three markets would resolve YES simultaneously for any single match outcome, violating fundamental probability constraints. For example, if Palmeiras wins, both Market 2 (Palmeiras) and Market 3 (Tie) cannot both resolve YES. Key quote: 'If Corinthians wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Palmeiras wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes' — each condition triggers a separate market's YES resolution, but only one outcome can occur.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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