SC Corinthians Paulista vs. SE Palmeiras

Critical divergence points:

• Polymarket: Aligned with standard match resolution logic: Polymarket defines three separate binary markets where exactly one outcome (Palmeiras win, Draw, or Corinthians win) resolves YES and the others resolve NO. Each market has identical resolution source (CBF official statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours) and scope (90 minutes plus stoppage time only). Key quote: 'If SE Palmeiras wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' — applied consistently across all three outcome markets.
• Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's structure is logically incoherent. It defines three separate markets where Market 1 resolves YES if Corinthians wins, Market 2 resolves YES if Palmeiras wins, and Market 3 resolves YES if the match ends in a tie. This means all three markets would resolve YES simultaneously for any single match outcome, violating fundamental probability constraints. For example, if Palmeiras wins, both Market 2 (Palmeiras) and Market 3 (Tie) cannot both resolve YES. Key quote: 'If Corinthians wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Palmeiras wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes' — each condition triggers a separate market's YES resolution, but only one outcome can occur.