TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC
Volume:
$912,376
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Wednesday, April 22, 2026 between San Jose Earthquakes and Austin FC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market structure is logically contradictory and unresolvable. All three outcome markets (San Jose win, Austin win, Tie) are defined identically with the same resolution condition, making it impossible for exactly one to resolve YES as required in a mutually exclusive event.Hero Tip:
Avoid trading the Kalshi markets for this event. The platform's market design contains a fatal logical error where all three outcome markets would resolve YES simultaneously if any outcome occurs, violating basic probability principles. Polymarket offers clear, mutually exclusive resolution logic and should be preferred.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Three mutually exclusive markets with clear logic: Market 1 resolves YES only if San Jose wins; Market 2 resolves YES only if draw occurs; Market 3 resolves YES only if Austin wins. Exactly one market will resolve YES. Quote: 'If San Jose Earthquakes wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
- Kalshi: Three markets with identical resolution conditions. Market 1: 'If San Jose wins...then resolves to Yes.' Market 2: 'If Austin wins...then resolves to Yes.' Market 3: 'If Tie wins...then resolves to Yes.' All three markets use the same template structure, creating logical impossibility where all three resolve YES for any single outcome, or all three resolve NO if none of their specific conditions are met. Quote: All three markets follow pattern 'If [outcome] wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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