TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$224,446,576
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,198,377,813
501,416
Markets across
13,642
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,816
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Atlanta United FC
Volume:
$82,005
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the San Jose Earthquakes vs. Atlanta United FC MLS match scheduled for February 28, 2026. Kalshi offers markets on goal-differential outcomes (>1.5 and >2.5 goal margins for either team), while Polymarket offers binary markets on match winner (San Jose win, Atlanta win, or draw). Both platforms resolve based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi markets measure goal differential thresholds (>1.5 and >2.5 goals), while Polymarket markets measure binary match outcomes (win/loss/draw). Both use the same time window (90 minutes plus stoppage time) and data source (MLS official records), but the resolution criteria are fundamentally different market archetypes.Hero Tip:
Kalshi and Polymarket are measuring different things. A 1-0 San Jose win triggers Yes on Polymarket but No on Kalshi. A 3-0 San Jose win triggers Yes on both. Understand which market type matches your prediction before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Goal-differential markets. Resolves Yes if San Jose wins by >1.5 goals, Atlanta wins by >1.5 goals, San Jose wins by >2.5 goals, or Atlanta wins by >2.5 goals. Key Quote: 'If San Jose wins by more than 1.5 goals in the Atlanta at San Jose professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for Feb 28, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Binary match outcome markets. Three separate markets: San Jose win (Yes/No), Atlanta win (Yes/No), and draw (Yes/No). Key Quote: 'If San Jose Earthquakes wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.