TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
polymarket
kalshi

Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

Volume:
$205,681

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 13, 2026

Closed: Mar 12, 1:45 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$98,507
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Vallecano

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$36,379
N/A
N/A
$23,918
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Samsunspor

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$35,326
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Samsunspor

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,316
N/A
N/A
$16,246
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Samsunspor vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,819
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,334
N/A
N/A
$2,228
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

A professional soccer match between Turkish club Samsunspor and Spanish club Rayo Vallecano de Madrid scheduled for March 12, 2026, with markets predicting the match outcome (win/draw/loss) based on 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Multiple prediction platforms have created overlapping markets on this single sporting event.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket's draw market contains a cancellation clause that resolves to Yes if the match is canceled, while Kalshi provides no explicit cancellation guidance. This creates asymmetric risk for traders betting on draw outcomes across platforms.Hero tip: If you are long the draw on Polymarket and short on Kalshi, a cancellation event would create a profitable arbitrage but also platform risk. Verify Kalshi's cancellation policy directly. For most scenarios (match plays to completion), all platforms resolve consistently based on 90-minute result.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three separate binary markets: Samsunspor Win (resolves No on cancellation), Draw (resolves Yes on cancellation), Rayo Win (resolves No on cancellation). Draw market has unique cancellation logic: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve Yes.' Resolution source is UEFA official statistics or credible consensus within 2 hours of match end.
  • Kalshi: Single omnibus market covering all three outcomes (Tie, Samsunspor, Vallecano) with no explicit cancellation clause provided. Market resolves Yes for whichever outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No guidance on postponement or cancellation scenarios.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.