TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Sam Houston Bearkats vs. New Mexico Lobos
Volume:
$630,772
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the CBB game between Sam Houston Bearkats and New Mexico Lobos on March 18 at 9:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure is fundamentally broken: both outcomes (New Mexico wins OR Sam Houston wins) resolve to YES, making the market logically unresolvable. Polymarket correctly structures the market with mutually exclusive outcomes (Sam Houston Bearkats, New Mexico Lobos, or 50-50 on cancellation), plus separate Over/Under and spread markets.Hero Tip:
Do NOT trade Kalshi's moneyline market—it violates basic logic by resolving YES for every possible game outcome. Trade only Polymarket's markets, which have sound resolution logic. If you hold Kalshi positions, seek clarification or withdrawal before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's moneyline market (questions 1-2) contains a critical logical flaw. Both rules state 'the market resolves to Yes'—one for New Mexico winning and one for Sam Houston winning. This means the market resolves YES regardless of which team wins, making it unresolvable and unhedgeable. Quote: 'If New Mexico wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Sam Houston wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Aligned with sound market design: Polymarket structures the moneyline as a mutually exclusive categorical market (Sam Houston Bearkats vs. New Mexico Lobos), with a 50-50 cancellation clause. Polymarket also offers separate, well-defined Over/Under markets (at thresholds 162.5, 163.5, 164.5, 165.5, 172.5, 174.5, 175.5, 176.5, 177.5, 178.5, 179.5, 180.5, 181.5, 183.5, 184.5, 185.5, 187.5, 189.5) and spread markets (New Mexico -11.5 through -26.5). Quote: 'If the Sam Houston Bearkats win, the market will resolve to Sam Houston Bearkats. If the New Mexico Lobos win, the market will resolve to New Mexico Lobos.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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